kutamaya

The development of future global energy demand is determined by three key factors:

• Population development: the number of people consuming energy or using energy services.
• Economic development, for which Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most commonly used indicator. In general, an increase in GDP triggers an increase in energy demand.
• Energy intensity: how much energy is required to produce a unit of GDP.

Both the Reference and Energy [R]evolution scenarios are based on the same projections of population and economic development.The future development of energy intensity, however, differs between the two, taking into account the measures to increase energy efficiency under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario.

development of electricity demand by sector

Under the Energy [R]evolution Scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase to a disproportionate extent, with households and services the main source of growing consumption (see Figure 28). Due to the exploitation of efficiency measures an even higher increase can be avoided, in spite of continuous economic growth, leading to an electricity demand of around 360 TWh/a in the year 2050. Compared to the Reference Scenario, efficiency measures will avoid the generation of about 200 TWh/a.This continuing reduction in energy demand can be achieved in particular by using highly efficient electronic devices representing the currently best available technology.

electricity generation

The development of the electricity supply sector is characterised by a dynamically growing renewable energy market and an increasing share of renewable electricity.This will compensate for the reduction of coal and a reduction in fossil-fired condensing power plants to the minimum required for grid stabilisation. By 2050, 60% of the electricity produced in Indonesia will come from renewable energy sources. ‘New’ renewables – wind, biomass, geothermal and solar energy – will contribute 70% of this capacity.The following strategy paves the way for a future renewable energy supply:

• The reduction of coal power plants and increasing electricity demand will be compensated for initially by bringing into operation new highly efficient gas-fired combined-cycle power plants, plus an increasing capacity of geothermal power plants. In the long term, geothermal, solar photovoltaic and biomass will be the most important sources of electricity generation.
• PV, biomass and geothermal energy will make substantial contributions to electricity production. In particular, as nonfluctuating renewable energy sources, geothermal and biomass will be important elements in the overall generation mix
• Because of nature conservation concerns, the use of hydro power will be limited to small hydro power plants and grow up to 12,000 MW in 2050, although the potential is even higher.
• Again due to nature conservation concerns, the use of biomass will be largely limited to agricultural waste and grow up to 5,000 MW in 2050, although the technical potential is ten times higher.
• The installed capacity of renewable energy technologies will increase from the current 5 GW to 78 GW in 2050. Increasing renewable capacity by a factor of 15 within the next 42 years requires policy support and well-designed policy instruments. Because electricity demand is still growing, there will be a large demand for investment in new capacity over the next 20 years. As investment cycles in the power sector are long, decisions for restructuring the Indonesian supply system need to be taken now.